Ethereum Price News: History Favors Drop to $1,800 for ETH in June

Ethereum (ETH) has dropped by 12.5% in the past 30 days, becoming the worst-performing token in the top 5.

The market has turned increasingly hostile toward the top altcoin for unknown reasons, while other altcoins like BNB (BNB) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) have attracted attention amid the launch of new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.

Ethereum is struggling to stay above $2,000 and risks a strong drop to $1,800 if that floor falters.

Ethereum’s Seasonality Favors Drop to $1,800

Looking at historical patterns, June has not been a favorable month for ETH. According to data from CoinGlass, the token has booked a loss in 7 out of the last 10 years.

These losses have ranged from 1.5% to 45%. On the other hand, in the three years that ETH has booked a gain, its positive returns have ranged from 3% to 26%.

A drop to $1,800 seems highly likely based on these historical patterns, and market conditions are all set for it.

That said, we see a spike in open interest (OI) for ETH that seems to indicate strong bullish positioning despite the token’s poor performance.

According to CoinGlass, OI climbed to a new all-time high on May 27 at 15.98 million ETH. We prefer to analyze OI in ETH terms as it removes the impact of price fluctuations from the equation.

This could be interpreted as an early signal of the beginning of a bull market, as the smart money seems to be positioning for a bull run despite the latest drop.

Weekly Ethereum Buy Signal Persists Despite Latest Setback

Our cycle bottom estimate is still $1,800 for now. Market sentiment has not yet recovered, but we are seeing strong signs that we are in the early stages of a bullish cycle.

This weekly chart signal is based on a move below 30 in the RSI. The last three times this has happened, ETH has delivered strong gains around 6 to 12 months later.

What we have seen recently in tokens like BNB and HYPE could set the stage for a strong recovery in ETH, as it indicates that the market’s interest in altcoins is getting stronger.

Hence, if a drop to $1,800 occurs, we see it as an attractive buying opportunity that could yield big returns for those who are patient enough to wait until this next bull market unfolds.

Momentum Turns Bearish as Sentiment Remains Depressed

Looking at the daily chart, we see that the price action has found a temporary demand zone at $2,000. However, buying interest has been weak. We would need to see a break above $2,150 to reignite the hopes of a rally toward $2,400 and then $2,800 in the near term.

Momentum is in favor of bears, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 32. We have not yet reached extreme levels to justify a technical bounce, but the jury is still out unless we get a clean break below $2K.

The next stop for ETH in that case would be $1,800, meaning a downside risk of 10%. However, based on a historical buy signal in the weekly chart, we do not expect that Ethereum will drop below this mark.