EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues Consolidation

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 22.09.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro initially plunged during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. All things being equal, it looks like we are trying to consolidate and determine where we are going next, but it certainly looks as if the Euro is going to continue to struggle. The 50-Day EMA it looks as if it is going to drop below the 200-Day EMA, kicking off the so-called “death cross” near the bottom of the overall channel that we have recently slice through. All things being equal, this is a market that I do think is going to continue to struggle, but we could get a short-term rally in the meantime to offer “cheap US dollars.” All things being equal, if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Thursday, that could open up the possibility of the EUR/USD pair going down to the 1.05 level.

Ultimately, this is a market that I think still is trying to sort itself out, especially as the Federal Reserve, Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England have all sat still on interest rates, while the European Central Bank hiked. That being said, it may be a situation where we start to look at the possibility of a run toward safety, meaning the US dollar. I think at this point, we still have a situation where you are fading rallies that occur, as it should open up a bigger opportunity.

It is not until we break above the 1.08 level that I think that the Euro can continue to go to the upside for anything along the lines of a significant move, so at this point in time I still believe that there will be plenty of problems above that could come into the picture. I do believe that the 1.06 level could offer a little bit of support, but I think it is a short-term scenario the people will be paying close attention to. In general, this is a scenario where a lot of people will continue to pay close attention to this pair as it could give us a bit of a “heads up” as to what’s going on with the US dollar.

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