EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to Threaten Upside Breakout

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 28.04.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro initially rallied during the trading session on Thursday but still sees a lot of noise just above that could cause some headaches. Ultimately, the market does look a little stretched, but if we do take off and break above the 1.11 level, the market could open up and move to the 1.1250 level, perhaps even further than that. Looking at this chart, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of upward pressure, but if we were to turn around and break down below the 1.09 level, the market could drop significantly. At that point, we would be threatening the 50-Day EMA and of course, a plethora of areas where we’ve seen some buying in the past.

All things being equal, I think this is a situation where the market certainly favors the upside, but it’s also a bit of a misunderstanding because even if the US does go into recession, it’s never happened that the US goes into a recession without the rest of the world following. In other words, sooner or later, we are going to see a flush lower, but right now it looks like we continue to see a lot of back-and-forth. In fact, I would not be surprised at all to see the market simply grind sideways for a while as we try to figure things out between now and the next Federal Reserve meeting.

The market will continue to be noisy, as we have seen in FX markets worldwide. With this being the case, the market is likely to see a lot of choppy behavior, and therefore a lot of confusion. I think at this point in time we probably have a situation where you are more likely than not going to see a lot of short-term opportunities in a range-bound type of system going forward. Ultimately, I do favor the upside in the short-term, but longer term I do think that the Euro is going to start to have to deal with the idea of gravity. With that, it will take a lot of patience to wait and get the opportunity to short, so the market is one that you will be playing at “2 speeds.”

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