EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Does Very Little to Kick Off The Week

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 09-01-2024

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro has done very little in the way of movement during the trading session on Monday here as we continue to dance just above the 1.09 level. The 1.09 level is a minor level, but it is an area where we have seen certain momentum kind of get sapped from the market 1.10 level above is a major barrier, and if we can break above there, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the 1.11 level. That being said, I doubt any move is going to be simple or easy at this point in time as the market simply has no idea what to do with itself in general. Both of these central banks could be cutting before it’s all said and done. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that the US dollar is considered to be a safety currency, so that always comes into the picture as well.

Underneath, we have the 50-day EMA, which offered support on Friday, and if we were to break down below there, then we could drop down to the 200-day EMA, perhaps even the 1.0750 level. Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve has been singing a more dovish tune recently and has suggested that perhaps we may see interest rate cuts in 2024, but at the same time traders are starting to question whether or not the European Central Bank can get away without doing the same.

With this, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a very short-term choppy type of range maybe using the high and the low of the Friday candlestick as a proxy for your barriers. If we break above or below, then we may see a bit of momentum chasing. Regardless, this is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy. And you have to ask whether or not the market hasn’t just settled into a short-term range that perhaps makes everybody happy. Be cautious with your position size, at least until we get some type of clarity, something that we are sorely lacking at the moment.

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