EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Falls After Jobs Number

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 08.05.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday but found enough resistance above to turn things around and started selling off. Alternatively, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, because quite frankly the markets have no idea what to do with the idea of inflation. After all, the Federal Reserve continues to reiterate its desire to stay tight for longer, and the jobs number gives it yet another reason to think so. That being said, the market seems to be arguing with the Federal Reserve and doesn’t seem to believe them.

Looking at this chart, it’s obvious that we have been consolidating for a while so it’s not a huge surprise if we get some type of buyer coming into the picture, with a 50-Day EMA reaching the 1.09 level. At this point, the euro continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, and I think a lot of questions asked about whether or not the Federal Reserve can actually stay tight for as long as they claim to. That being said, on the 1.11 level above is a significant resistance barrier, and therefore I think a break above there would really open up the floodgates. That being said, I could probably say the same thing about the 50-Day EMA underneath, as it would bring in a lot of sellers.

All things being equal, you can only read so much into the Non-Farm Payroll number, because it does cause quite a bit of noise under the best of circumstances, and it’s not rare at all to see the market lunge in one direction, only to turn right back around later. Ultimately, the volatility is probably something that we continue to stick with, and therefore you have to be very cautious with the idea of the market suddenly changing its stripes. After all, we have seen quite a few attempts by the dollar to strengthen again, only to see it fail yet again. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to stick to the short term movement, and therefore the noisy behavior should continue.

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