EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Gives Up Early Gain

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 11.04.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but gave back gains above the 1.09 level as we continue to see a lot of overhead resistance. The market has seen quite a bit of noise recently, so it does make a certain amount of sense that the Euro could struggle a bit. Ultimately, I think that we are in the midst of potentially trying to form some type of double top, perhaps showing just how difficult it’s going to be to get above the 1.10 level. If we do break down below the 1.08 level, then it’s very likely that we will continue going lower. I understand that the 50-Day EMA is coming into the picture, as it is near the 1.0750 level and rising.

If we break down below the 50-Day EMA, then it would make a certain amount of sense that we would see a bigger drop down to the 200-Day EMA, which sits right around the 1.0550 level, perhaps down to the 1.05 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is a situation where a lot of buyers would come back into this picture. If we were to break down below the 1.05 level, then the market is likely to drop rather significantly from there, as it has been a rather important support level recently.

This is a situation where the sellers have a lot to prove, but quite frankly the market is likely to continue to see a lot of significant volatility as we continue to see a lot of questions around the world about global growth, and of course the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates at the next meeting in early May, but the question now is whether or not they will continue to raise rates. While the European Central Bank is almost certainly going to be a situation where we are probably going to see a lot of upward pressure on interest rates, but given enough time I think we’ve got a situation where risk aversion could send the US dollar into a much stronger position, but right now I think we’ve got a lot of choppiness so keep your position size reasonable.

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