EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Rallies on Tuesday

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 28.06.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

Over the last couple of days, we have seen the Euro plunged toward the 50-Day EMA, only to turn around and show signs of life. At this point, it looks like the Euro is going to go looking toward the 1.10 level, an area that, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will pay attention to. It’s also likely going to be some options barrier, so I think it makes sense that we would see a little bit of noise in that area. However, breaking the above is something we have done once before, opening up the possibility of a move to the 1.11 level.

Underneath, the 50-Day EMA should offer some support, but if we break it down below there, we have the 200-Day EMA, which is just above the 1.07 level and rising. Underneath that, we have an uptrend line as well. All things being equal, I think this is a situation where we probably have a lot of noise just waiting to happen, but I think, more likely than not, we are going to hover around the 1.10 level overall for the next month or so. After all, we are in the midst of summer, which is typically a quiet time of year, but we also have both of these central banks being relatively tight.

All things being equal, you have to look at the fact that there is a lot of upward momentum, so whether or not we can break out remains to be seen, but it is probably more likely than some massive breakdown ultimately. This is a market that you need to look at through the short-term prism more than anything else, perhaps going the route of a range-bound trader on shorter-term charts more than anything else right now. I think hanging on for longer-term moves will be very difficult at this point, as there are so many unanswered questions. Both the ECB and the Federal Reserve appear to be very tight, so you may see more noise than anything else as a result of both banks behaving in the same manner.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.