EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Sits on the 50-Day EMA

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 08.08.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro has pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. That being said, the support at the 1.09 level should be thought of as important. Furthermore, it’s right in the middle of the area that features the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA indicators. There’s also an uptrend line just below the 200-Day EMA, so that is something worth paying attention to.

If we were to break above the 1.1150 level, then the market is likely to continue going to the highs again which is closer to the 1.1250 level. The market has been in quite some uptrend for a while, therefore I think it’s probably easier to buy the dip in the pair than it is to try to short the market. All things being equal, if we do break down below the uptrend line, then you can start to have that argument, as the world would be running toward the US dollar. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen, but that’s something that would certainly catch the attention of most market participants.

We are essentially in an area that is consolidation, so I do think that the market is trying to bounce a bit from here in order to go higher. If we can break above the 1.1250 level, then it is likely that the market could go looking to the 1.15 level above, which obviously has a lot of psychology attached to it. All things being equal, I do think that we could get there, but the interest rate differential does favor the US dollar slightly. It’s not a huge difference role, so you are going to need more of a “risk off scenario” to send this pair lower. It is worth noting that the Germans are now in recession, so the euro could struggle given enough time. The overall attitude in this market is positive, but only slightly so. You have to assume that the market is going to be very noisy and therefore I think you need to keep your position size reasonable.

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