EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Very Quiet During Thursday Session

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 26-01-2024

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro has been very quiet during the early hours on Thursday as it looks like we just don’t have anywhere to be. We continue to hang around the 50 day EMA of course, and this has been an indicator that a lot of people have been paying attention to for a while. It is essentially in the middle of a larger consolidation area between the 1.0750 level on the bottom and the 1.10 level on the top. At this point, I am very neutral on this pair and will more likely than not continue to be for the foreseeable future.

Essentially, what I would like to see is the market go to one of the extremes of the range and then show signs of exhaustion so that I can play the longer-term range. As far as longer term buy and hold, or sell and hold, positions are concerned, I just don’t see that happening, at least not until we get some type of resolution with central bank expectations. As things stand right now, it appears that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in 2024 multiple times, but now traders are starting to ask questions as to whether or not the ECB will have to as well. After all, Germany is in the midst of a recession and that of course has its own influence on the market.

If we were to break above the 1.10 level, that would obviously be extraordinarily bullish and could send this market looking to the 1.1150 level, possibly even as high as the 1.1250 level. Underneath, the 1.0750 then opens up a move to the 1.06 level in the bearish scenario. But right now, we would need to see some type of definitive action by one of the central banks to let us know what happens next. The Euro against the US dollar is a good proxy for the overall market attitude, which just seems to be killing time. And therefore, this all makes quite a bit of sense as to how the price action is currently behaving.

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