EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY at 105.29; Market Eyes US PPI

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Updated: Jun 2, 2024, 10:22 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

German Final CPI m/m held steady at 0.5%, meeting expectations.
UK claimant count change at 8.9K, lower than prior 13.9K, better than -2.4K expected.
Core PPI m/m for USD expected at 0.2%, PPI m/m at 0.3%.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY at 105.29; Market Eyes US PPI

Market Overview

In the Eurozone, the German Final CPI m/m remained steady at 0.5%, aligning with expectations. For the UK, the claimant count change was reported at 8.9K, lower than the previous 13.9K but better than the expected -2.4K. The Average Earnings Index 3m/y held at 5.7%, matching forecasts, while the unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.3%, up from 4.2%.

Events Ahead

For the USD, the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m is expected at 0.2%, and the PPI m/m at 0.3%, both scheduled for release at 5:30 pm. Additionally, FOMC Member Cook and Fed Chair Powell will be speaking at 6:10 pm and 7:00 pm, respectively, potentially providing further insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.

For the EUR, the ZEW Economic Sentiment is projected at 46.1, and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 44.9, both critical indicators of economic confidence, set to be released at 2:00 pm. The EU Economic Forecasts and ECOFIN Meetings, scheduled for all day, will also play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment towards the euro.

In the UK, the CB Leading Index m/m is expected to be -0.3%, which, along with recent data showing a claimant count change of 8.9K and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, will influence the GBP/USD pair.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is trading at $105.295, up 0.05%. The 4-hour chart identifies the pivot point at $105.403. Key resistance levels are at $105.740, $106.146, and $106.476. Immediate support is at $105.061, followed by $104.679 and $104.200.

The 50-day EMA is at $105.378, and the 200-day EMA is at $105.232. The index is bearish below $105.403, and a break above this level could potentially boost bullish momentum.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD is trading at $1.07839, down 0.03%. The 4-hour chart identifies the pivot point as $1.07767. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.08078, $1.08390, and $1.08701. Immediate support is at $1.07513, followed by $1.07240 and $1.06897. The 50-day EMA is at $1.07586, and the 200-day EMA is at $1.07515.

The pair remains bullish above the pivot point of $1.07767; however, a break below this level could lead to significant selling pressure.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: TradingView

GBP/USD is trading at $1.25538, down 0.02%. The 4-hour chart highlights key price levels with a pivot point at $1.25345. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.25925, $1.26468, and $1.27077.

On the downside, immediate support is at $1.24459, followed by $1.24032 and $1.23475. The 50-day EMA is at $1.25260, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.25409. The pair maintains a bullish outlook above the pivot point of $1.25345, but a break below this level could lead to substantial selling pressure.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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