EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts – US Dollar (DXY) Holds Steady Ahead of PCE Release

James Hyerczyk
Published: Jun 25, 2024, 16:35 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • The US dollar remains firm at 105.70, mixed against major currencies, ahead of Friday's PCE release.
  • Euro dips slightly, facing pressure from France's political turmoil and tight trading range.
  • Sterling up slightly, holding steady amid broader market movements and key data releases.
  • Canadian dollar gains modestly, supported by unexpected inflation rise and oil price trends.
  • Yen cautious as traders wary of intervention, following Bank of Japan's policy decisions.

US Dollar

4-Hour US Dollar Index (DXY)

The US dollar firmed slightly ahead of Friday’s PCE price index release. It remained steady at 105.70 against a basket of currencies. The dollar’s performance was mixed against major currencies, with slight declines against the Sterling and Loonie, while holding steady against others. Political events, including the upcoming US presidential debate, are influencing market sentiment.

The U.S. Dollar Index displays a bullish trend, trading at 105.699, above its 50-day SMA of 105.488. Recent price action shows recovery from a mid-month dip. The RSI at 57.70 suggests moderate upward momentum, with potential resistance at 105.748 and 106.017 and support around 104.668.


4-Hour EUR/USD

The euro dipped on Tuesday, heading for a monthly loss of 1%. It has been trading in a tight $1.07-1.08 range for most of the year. Political turmoil in France following President Macron’s snap election call has put pressure on the euro. Analysts suggest significant surprises in upcoming inflation data or French elections could impact the pair.

The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.07051, below its 50-day SMA of 1.07216, indicating a bearish trend. The price is fluctuating within a range, with resistance around 1.07861 and support near 1.07051. The RSI at 43.19 suggests slightly bearish momentum.

4-Hour GBP/USD

Sterling was up 0.1% at $1.2691. The pound’s performance against the dollar remained relatively stable. The text doesn’t provide extensive information on GBP/USD specifically, but it suggests the pair is holding steady amid broader market movements and ahead of key economic data releases and political events in the US and Europe.

GBP/USD is trading at 1.26800, slightly below its 50-day SMA of 1.26920, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish trend. The pair has recently bounced from lows but faces short-term resistance at 1.26984. RSI at 49.88 suggests balanced momentum. Support is visible near 1.26713.

4-Hour USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar edged 0.1% higher against the US dollar, trading at 1.3645. Canada’s unexpected inflation acceleration to 2.9% in May reduced expectations of a Bank of Canada rate cut in July. This data triggered a modest rally in the Canadian dollar. Oil prices, a key factor for CAD, were down 0.3%.

The USD/CAD 4-hour chart shows a downtrend, bouncing off the 1.36214 support level. The 50-period moving average at 1.37103 trends downward. The RSI suggests potential oversold conditions, hinting at a bullish reversal.


4-Hour USD/JPY

The dollar retreated from the key 160 yen level, last trading 0.1% lower at 159.43 yen. Traders remained cautious due to potential intervention from Japanese officials. The yen’s recent decline followed the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting, which disappointed investors hoping for reduced bond purchases. The market remains nervous about shorting the yen.

The USD/JPY 4-hour chart shows an uptrend, with resistance at 159.929 and support at 158.344. The 50-period moving average (blue line) trends upward. The RSI is near overbought at 69.20, indicating potential for a pullback.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

Did you find this article useful?