EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 12, 2021

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar on Monday after recovering from early weakness after official data showed Euro Zone retail sales were stronger than expected in February, as some countries eased their COVID-19 pandemic restrictions before tightening them again in March.

At 10:46 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1918, up 0.0017 or +0.14%.

The European Union’s statistics office said retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the Euro rose 3.0% month-on-month in February for a 2.9% year-on-year fall. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 1.5% monthly rise and a 5.4% year-on-year decline.

Despite the good news, the reaction may be short-lived because the data covered a period when economies were open in the Euro Zone. In March, some economies shut down as COVID-19 cases increased in the region. This could lead to a lower performance in the next retail sales report.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 1.1989 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1704 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. A trade through 1.1738 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is 1.1603 to 1.2349. The EUR/USD is currently testing its retracement zone at 1.1888 to 1.1976. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is 1.1989 to 1.1704. Its 50% level at 1.1847 is potential support.

The minor range is 1.1704 to $1.1927. Its 50% level at 1.1816 is another potential downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1888.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1888 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 1.1927 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next target a potential resistance cluster at 1.1947 to 1.1990.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1888 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into a pair of 50% levels at 1.1847 and 1.1816. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on a test of these levels. They will be trying to form a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom.