EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 15, 2021

The Euro is edging lower against the U.S. Dollar shortly before the release of the U.S. retail sales and weekly unemployment claims reports at 12:30 GMT. These reports can be the source of volatility as well as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production.

At 12:10 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1968, down 0.0013 or -0.11%.

U.S. Treasury yields drifted lower on Thursday morning, ahead of the release of weekly jobless claims and monthly retail sales data.

The initial jobless claims report is expected to show another 710,000 claims were filed for the first time during the week-ended April 10. March retail sales are also set to come out at 12:30 GMT and are expected to have jumped 6.1%, versus a 3% decline in February.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend changed to up earlier today on a move through the pair of tops at 1.1989 and 1.1990. A move under 1.1704 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 1.1603 to 1.2349. Currently, the EUR/USD is attempting to cross to the bullish side of its retracement zone at 1.1888 to 1.1976. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is 1.2243 to 1.1704. Its retracement zone at 1.1974 to 1.2037 is potential resistance. The EUR/USD tested this area earlier in the session at 1.1993.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of 50% levels at 1.1974 to 1.1976.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1974 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main Fibonacci level at 1.1888.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1976 will signal the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 1.1993 could trigger a move into 1.2037. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.