EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for August 26, 2019

The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar on Monday after giving back its earlier gains. The tone was bullish early in the session on follow-through buying related to Friday’s events that drove the U.S. Dollar sharply lower.

If you recall, China imposed fresh tariffs on the U.S., and President Trump ordered U.S. companies to leave China. This news raised fears of a U.S. recession, while driving down U.S. Treasury yields and demand for higher risk assets.

At 12:16 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1118, down 0.0023 or -0.21%.

The Euro reversed to the downside today after President Trump said on Monday that China is ready to come back to the negotiating table and the two countries will start talking very seriously. Speaking at the G-7 summit in Biarritz in France, Trump praised Chinese President Xi Jinping and welcomed his desire for a deal and for calm.

That’s the story driving the price action at this time. Conditions could turn bullish for the EUR/USD later in the session if China doesn’t confirm or if it denies the report.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend changed to up on Friday when buyers took out the 1.1113 main top. The new main bottom is 1.1052. A trade through this bottom will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 1.1027 to 1.1250. Its retracement zone at 1.1139 to 1.1112 is controlling the price action today.

On the upside, retracement zone resistance is 1.1185. This is a long-term level.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the price cluster at 1.1110 to 1.1112.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1110 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 1.1070. This is the last potential support angle before the 1.1052 and 1.1027 main bottoms.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1112 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the 50% level at 1.1139, followed by the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1152. This level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 1.1180 and 1.1185.

Overview

Everybody is watching for China’s response to Trump’s comments about the renewed trade talks. This news will make or break the EUR/USD today.