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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar after reversing earlier losses in response to weaker than expected U.S. private sector jobs data. The single currency was under pressure in response to a report from Bloomberg that said the U.S. and China were close to reaching a trade deal. The Euro rebounded and turned higher for the session after the release of a private payrolls report that came in lower than expected.

At 14:22 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1108, up 0.0027 or +0.23%.

Look for volatility at 15:00 GMT, following the release of the ISM Services PMI report. It is expected to come in at 54.5, down slightly from 54.7. This report could drive the EUR/USD even higher if it comes in well below expectations. Earlier in the week, a weak ISM US manufacturing PMI report drove the Euro higher after it missed expectations while signaling a contraction in the sector.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned up when buyers took out the previous main top at 1.1097.

The short-term range is 1.1176 to 1.0981. The Euro is currently straddling its retracement zone at 1.1079 to 1.1102. Trading on the strong side of this retracement zone will help generate an upside bias.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1108, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1101.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1101 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.1102 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a rally into a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1116.

The Gann angle at 1.1116 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle coming in at 1.1146. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 1.1176 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1101 will signal the return of sellers. The first downside target is the 50% level at 1.1079. If this fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into a pair of Gann angles at 1.1056 and 1.1041.

Side Notes

Gann angles aside, look for the EUR/USD to strengthen on a sustained move over 1.1102, and weaken on a sustained move under 1.1079.

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