EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for February 15, 2021

The Euro is trading higher on Monday with volume coming in below average due to a U.S. holiday. The currency is also retreating after an early session rally fell short of last week’s high at 1.2149 and a resistance level at 1.2151.

The single-currency is being supported by expectations of a slower-than-expected recovery in the United States, but higher U.S. inflation expectations and a surge in U.S. Treasury yields could be capping gains.

At 15:39 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.2125, up 0.0005 or +0.04%.

In other news, most Euro Zone bond yields rose to multi-month highs on Monday with investors betting on a brighter economic outlook and a pick-up in inflation as oil prices rose to their highest level in over a year.

Ten-year bond yields in Germany, France and the Netherlands all rose to their highest since early September, while Germany’s 30-year bond yield rose to an eight-month high.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, but momentum has been trending higher since the formation of a closing price reversal bottom on February 5. A trade through 1.2190 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1952 will signal a resumption of the downtrending.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.2149 will change the minor trend to up. This will confirm the shift in momentum. A trade through the last minor bottom at 1.2082 will be a sign of weakness.

The main range is 1.1800 to 1.2349. Its retracement zone at 1.2074 is support.

The minor range is 1.2190 to 1.1952. Its retracement zone at 1.2100 to 1.2071 is also potential support.

The two 50% levels form a potential support cluster at 1.2074 to 1.2071.

The short-term range is 1.2349 to 1.1952. Its retracement zone at 1.2151 to 1.2197 is resistance. The upper level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is currently trading inside a pair of retracement levels at 1.2151 to 1.2100. We expect to see a sideways trade as long as the single-currency remains inside the range.

Looking at the bigger picture, the support zone comes in at 1.2074 to 1.2010 and the resistance zone comes in at 1.2151 to 1.2197. Again the conclusion is a rangebound trade although we have a slight bias to the downside because of the downtrend and the pair of tops at 1.2149 and 1.2190.

The EUR/USD will have to change the lower-high, lower-low chart pattern in order to shift the bias to the upside.