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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading higher on Friday on profit-taking and position-squaring ahead of the week-end. The single-currency is in a position to close lower for the week. The selling is being fueled by concerns over the slowing Euro Zone economy and doubts about the European Central Bank’s ability to start raising interest rates this year.

At 1246 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1408, up 0.0019 or +0.12%.

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Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top at 1.1570 on January 10.

A trade through 1.1370 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger with the main bottom at 1.1309 the next likely downside target.

The minor trend is down. This reaffirms the shift in momentum to down.

The main range is 1.1309 to 1.1570. Trading below its retracement zone at 1.1440 to 1.1409 is contributing to the downside bias.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1408, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 1.1409.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over 1.1409 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1419. Overcoming this angle could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the main 50% level at 1.1440. This is followed closely by the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1450.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1409 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is today’s intraday low at 1.1386. Taking out this level could drive the market into the minor bottom at 1.1370, followed by an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1364. This angle is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 1.1337. This is the last potential support angle before the 1.1309 main bottom.

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