EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for June 15, 2020

The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar on Monday, while posting an inside move. The price action suggests buyers are trying to defend the single-currency against another wave of selling pressure. The dollar is firming because of safe-haven buying after global equity markets sold-off overnight and ahead of an expected weaker U.S. session.

At 12:15 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1253, down 0.0008 or -0.07%.

The catalysts behind the selling pressure in the financial markets are renewed concerns over a second wave of coronavirus infections after Beijing and a number of U.S. states reported a jump in cases.

Euro Zone Trade Surplus Plunges Y/Y in April Amid Lockdowns

The Euro Zone’s trade surplus plunged year-on-year in April as pandemic lockdowns of economies around the world slashed trade volumes, data from the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat showed on Monday.

Eurostat said the external trade surplus of the 19 countries sharing the Euro dropped to an unadjusted 2.9 billion Euros in April from 15.5 billion a year earlier as exports plunged by 29.3% year-on-year and imports fell 24.8%.

Adjusted for seasonal swings, the Euro Zone trade surplus was even smaller at 1.2 billion, a fraction of the 25.5 billion Euros the month before.

Exports of Europe’s biggest exporter Germany plunged by almost a quarter month-on-month and by more than a third France and Italy.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down on Friday when sellers took out 1.1240. A trade through 1.1422 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 1.1422 to 1.1213. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1318 is the nearest upside target and possible resistance.

The main range is 1.1496 to 1.0636. Its retracement zone at 1.1167 to 1.1066 is the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s low at 1.1213.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1213 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside pressure then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main Fibonacci level at 1.1167.

We could see a technical bounce on the first test of 1.1167, however, it’s also the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 1.1066 the next likely downside target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1213 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible rally into 1.1318 over the near-term.

Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of 1.1318.

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