EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for June 7, 2021

The Euro is trading lower on Monday as the U.S. Dollar edged higher, giving back some of its gains from Friday that were fueled by a weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. The price action and the relatively low volume suggests a little caution and trader indecision ahead of U.S. inflation data and the European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday.

At 13:27 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.2164, down 0.0002 or -0.02%.

Dovish rhetoric from ECB policymakers suggests the bank is in no hurry to slow the pace of buying under the 1.85 trillion Euro ($2.24 trillion) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers have begun inching toward a discussion about winding back bond-buying stimulus. This suggests a weak Euro, strong dollar short-term scenario.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.2104 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.2052 will reaffirm the downtrend. Taking out 1.2254 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.2266 will reaffirm the change in trend.

The minor range is 1.2266 to 1.2104. Its 50% level at 1.2185 is potential resistance.

The first short-term range is 1.2052 to 1.2266. The EUR/USD is currently straddling its 50% level at 1.2159.

The second short-term range is 1.1986 to 1.2266. Its 50% level at 1.2125 is potential support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.2159.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.2159 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the next 50% level at 1.2185. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of this level. Taking it out could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the main tops at 1.2254 and 1.2266 the primary upside targets.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.2159 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the 50% level at 1.2125. This is followed by last week’s low at 1.2104. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next targets 1.2052 and 1.2027.