EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for March 17, 2021

The Euro is trading nearly flat against the U.S. Dollar as traders set a cautious tone ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate and monetary policy decisions at 18:00 GMT. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also hold a press conference after the announcements.

At 13:55 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1908, up 0.0005 or +0.04%.

Fed policymakers are expected to forecast that the U.S. economy will grow in 2021 at its fastest rate in decades, with unemployment falling and inflation rising, but are not considered likely to change their monetary policy.

In economic news, more expensive services and food drove Euro Zone consumer inflation in February, offsetting cheaper energy, data from the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said on Wednesday.

Eurostat confirmed earlier estimates that consumer prices in the 19 countries sharing the Euro rose by 0.2% month-on-month in February for a 0.9% year-on-year increase.

Without the volatile energy and food prices, a measure the European Central Bank calls core inflation and watches closely in policy decisions, inflation was 0.1% month-on-month and 1.2% year-on-year.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1836 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 1.1990.

The minor range is 1.1836 to 1.1990. The EUR/USD is currently straddling its 50% level at 1.1913.

On the upside, potential resistance levels come in at 1.1974 and 1.2010.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to 1.1913.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1913 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 1.1836, followed by the November 23 main bottom at 1.1800.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1913 will signal the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge a cluster of potential resistance levels at 1.1974, 1.1900 and 1.2010. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 1.2074.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.