EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for March 4, 2020

The Euro is under pressure on Wednesday against the U.S. Dollar after a U.S. private payrolls report showed a greater-than-expected increase in February. The report pointed to labor market strength before a recent escalation of recession fears ignited by the coronavirus epidemic that prompted an emergency interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

At 14:49 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1107, down 0.0063 or -0.57%.

The ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday showed private payrolls rose by 183,000 jobs last month after advancing by a downwardly revised 209,000 in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls increasing by 170,000 jobs in February after a previously reported 291,000 in January. That figure was revised lower to 209,000 on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1213 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 1.0778. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a near-term 50% to 61.8% correction.

The major retracement zone at 1.1096 to 1.1170 is currently being tested. This zone could turn into resistance later today if 1.1096 fails as support.

The new short-term range is 1.0778 to 1.1213. Its retracement zone at 1.0996 to 1.0944 is the next potential downside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1107, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of Gann angles at 1.1127 and 1.1138.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1127 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of the major 50% level at 1.1096. This price level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major target the short-term 50% level at 1.0996.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1127 will signal the presence of buyer. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the major Fibonacci level at 1.1170, followed closely by another downtrending Gann angle at 1.1183.

Taking out 1.1183 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the two tops at 1.1213 and 1.1239 the next likely upside targets.

Side Notes

Essentially, we’re looking for the EUR/USD to weaken under 1.1096 and strengthen over 1.1170.