EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for November 11, 2021

The Euro is trading lower on Thursday in a limited trade likely caused by the U.S. bank holiday. Today’s early loss has the single currency edging closer to the July 16, 2020 main bottom at 1.1371.

The catalyst behind the selling pressure is the jump in U.S. consumer inflation that forced the market to move up the timing of the first U.S. post-pandemic rate hike to July 2022. That news drove investors into the U.S. Dollar, driving down all of the major currencies including the Euro.

At 14:38 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1461, down 0.0016 or -0.14%.

According to a report released on Wednesday, U.S. consumer prices grew last month at their fastest annual pace since 1990, data showed, and traders now think the Federal Reserve could respond by lifting interest rates faster than peers in Europe. Meanwhile, traders also see the European Central Bank (ECB) lagging on policy tightening, further pressuring the common currency.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at 1.1454 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. A move through 1.1608 will change the main trend to up.

The new minor range is 1.1608 to 1.1454. Its 50% level at 1.1531 is the nearest resistance.

The second minor range is 1.1692 to 1.1454. Its 50% level at 1.1573 is additional resistance.

The short-term range is 1.1755 to 1.1454, making its 50% level resistance at 1.1605.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Thursday will likely be determined by trader reaction to 1.1477.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1477 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at 1.1454 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger the start of a steep break into 1.1371.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1477 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into the first pivot at 1.1531, where it could be met by fresh sellers.

A close over 1.1477 will form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.