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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading higher versus the U.S. Dollar as investors bet that improving risk appetite stemming from good news on COVID-19 vaccines and hopes for a smoother transition to a Biden administration will pressure the greenback despite expectations of more stimulus from the European Central Bank.

At 14:40 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1944, up 0.0033 or +0.28%.

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In economic news, minutes from last month’s ECB meeting further supported expectations for some policy stimulus at its December gathering.

In addition to the minutes, the ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane warned that tolerating “a longer phase of even lower inflation” would hurt consumption and investment as well as cementing expectations for low price growth in the future.

The EUR/USD hit more than a two-month high on Thursday.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trade through yesterday’s high reaffirmed the uptrend on Friday. The main trend will change to down on a move through 1.1800.

The main range is 1.2011 to 1.1603. The EUR/USD is trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 1.1855 to 1.1807, giving it a solid upside bias and providing support.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The daily chart indicates the EUR/USD has a clear shot at 1.2011, the September 1 main top.

The first sign of weakness will be a break under the previous main top at 1.1920. A move under 1.1917 will indicate the selling is getting stronger, or the buying weaker. This could trigger a break into the retracement zone at 1.1855 to 1.1807. Since the main trend is up, this could set up the next buying opportunity.

Look for a steep break if 1.1855 fails as support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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