EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for September 16, 2021

The Euro is trading at its lowest level against the U.S. Dollar since August 27 on Thursday after a report showed a steep rise in Euro Zone imports. The common currency was trading steady for most of the session until the import news was released with traders waiting for clarity on the Federal Reserve’s timeline for tapering at next week’s policy meeting.

At 11:50 GMT, the EUR/USD is at 1.1771, down 0.0044 or -0.37%.

The Euro Zone’s trade surplus with the rest of the world declined in July from a year earlier, data released by the European Union’s statistics office showed on Thursday, as imports grew at a faster rate than exports.

Eurostat said the Euro Zone’s unadjusted trade surplus with the rest of the world fell to 20.7 billion Euros ($24.4 billion) in July from 26.8 billion Euros in July 2020.

However, the surplus for the first seven months of 2021 was comfortably higher, at 122.4 billion Euros from 112.8 billion Euros in Jan-July 2020.

The European Union’s trade deficit with China increased, while its surplus with the United States and Britain expanded in the first seven months of 2021.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 1.1664 will change the main trend to down. A move through 1.1909 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier today when sellers took out the minor bottom at 1.1770. A trade through 1.1846 will change the minor trend to up.

The short-term range is 1.1664 to 1.1909. The EUR/USD is currently testing its retracement zone at 1.1787 to 1.1758.

The main retracement zone at 1.1820 to 1.1856 is resistance. This zone recently stopped rallies at 1.1846 and 1.1851.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1787.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1787 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.1758. Look for a technical bounce on the first test of this level.

If 1.1758 fails as support then look for the start of an acceleration to the downside with 1.1726 the next target, followed by the main bottom at 1.1664.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1787 will signal the return of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into the main 50% level at 1.1820.