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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading higher shortly before the U.S. opening on Wednesday. The market is trading inside yesterday’s range which tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility. There was also no follow-through to the downside following yesterday’s potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

At 1035 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1699, up 0.0030 or +0.26%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, yesterday’s closing price reversal top may have slowed down the upside momentum. A trade through 1.1725 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A trade through 1.1652 will confirm the closing price reversal top. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor trend is also up. A move through 1.1617 will change the minor trend to down. This move will reaffirm the shift in momentum.

The short-term range is 1.1526 to 1.1725. Its retracement zone at 1.1626 to 1.1602 is the first downside target. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on the first test of this zone.

The main range is 1.1301 to 1.1734. Its retracement zone at 1.1518 to 1.1466 is major support.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the day is likely to be determined by trader reaction to an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1666.

A sustained move over 1.1666 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can create enough upside momentum then look for buyers to try to take out 1.1725. Overtaking this level should lead to a test of the next main tops at 1.1734 and 1.1751. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration into 1.1791.

A failure at 1.1666 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the first target a 50% level at 1.1626, followed by a price cluster at 1.1602 to 1.1596.

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