EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro continues to consolidate

The Euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to go back and forth in the same range that we had been in over the last couple of weeks. The market looks like it is trying to decide where to go next, but at this point it’s obviously very choppy to say the least.
Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD daily chart, September 20, 2019

The Euro market rallied during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the top of the short term range. The 50 day EMA above is painted in red, and it should continue to offer a lot of resistance. The shooting star from several days ago continues offer a major barrier, so that being the case, it makes sense that we still see sellers just above.

EURUSD analysis Video 20.09.19

To the downside, the 1.10 EUR level underneath offers a target as it has also been significant support. If we break down below there, the market goes down towards the 1.09 handle. All things being equal though, the Federal Reserve has cut rates, but they weren’t as dovish as many people had hoped. It will be interesting to see how this plays out longer term but we are still very much in a downtrend and therefore it’s likely that it should play out the same. The European Union still struggles with economic slowdowns, and of course offers negative rates in the bond markets of that of course could cause some issues as well.

The 200 day EMA above would be where I would suggest that the trend will have changed, and that is well above the 1.1225 handle, so with that in mind I still favor selling short-term rallies as they come, but I’m not looking for major meltdowns. This is more of a longer-term structural grind lower, as has been the case for several years.

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