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EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro continues to drift lower

The Euro initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Thursday before turning around and falling again. At this point, it’s likely that the market will continue to go lower, but it is going to be a very slow move.
Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD daily chart, August 30, 2019

The Euro initially tried to rally during the session on Thursday, but then found enough resistance to turn things around and show signs of weakness again. With that, it’s likely that we will see more grinding lower, and that makes quite a bit of sense considering that the European Central Bank continues to see a lot of economic headwinds that they will have to battle. As central banks go, this means loosening the monetary policy, and that of course should drive the Euro lower.

EURUSD analysis Video 30.08.19

At this point, we also are going to have to deal with the Germans going into recession, which is all but guaranteed at this point. With Germany struggling, so goes Europe. Beyond all of that, even though the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, there is a positive return with US Treasuries, something you cannot get in Europe. With that, it makes sense that this pair continues to go lower. Having said that, we are essentially in a 100 PIP range of massive support, so looking at this situation it’s very likely that it will be sloppy and difficult to break down. In other words, it’s probably going to be a scenario that we simply fade short-term rallies.

Just above, we have the 50 day EMA painted in red on the chart. It has acted as a bit of a ceiling for the market, so any rally at this point will probably run into a buzz saw of resistance in that region. Ultimately, I would be a seller at the first signs of exhaustion in that area as well.

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