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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD daily chart, March 21, 2019

The Euro has rallied slightly after initially pulling back on Wednesday, but at this point it looks like we are roughly in the middle of the overall consolidation area, which can be thought of as “fair value.” This means that the market is essentially evenly balanced here between buyers and sellers. Beyond that, we also have the 50 day EMA slicing through a couple of candles. The 1.1350 level course is a bit of a magnet, but after we get some news out of the Federal Reserve, we may get a little bit of clarity with the greenback. If they do expand quantitative easing or at least sound like there is absolutely no chance of an interest rate hike in 2019, that could help the Euro by default.

Euro to Dollar Forecast Video 21.03.19

Longer-term, looking at the chart it seems as if we are perfectly comfortable bouncing around between the 1.12 level on the bottom, and the 1.15 level above. That is a range that we will probably stay in, but once we break out of it should be good for a 300 point move. The reality is that there is a lot of support underneath the 1.12 level, seen at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and structural resistance from the past. Ultimately, I believe that we are going to break out to the upside but it’s going to take quite a bit of momentum to do that. With that in mind, I like buying short-term pullbacks that offer value.

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