EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Continues to Test the 200-Day EMA
EUR/USD Forecast Video for 06.06.23
Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The euro has drifted a little bit lower during the trading session on Monday, as we are hanging around the 200-Day EMA, an indicator that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. On the other hand, if the market were to break down below the lows of last week, then I think it’s very likely that the euro could go down to the 1.05 level. The 1.05 level underneath is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area we have bounced from previously. If we can break down below there, that could change everything.
On short-term bounces, I do think that we could rise all the way to the 1.0775 level, where we had pulled back from last week. If we break above there, then the market starts looking to the 50-Day EMA for a potential target. That obviously could offer a bit of resistance, and therefore I think that short-term rallies will more likely than not run into resistance. Anything above there obviously would be very bullish, but I think it would take a significant amount of momentum to make that happen.
I think over the next several couple of weeks, then it’s likely that we go back and forth and start to show signs of noisy behavior, and therefore I think this is probably going to be a situation where we are waiting until June 14 and June 15 for clarity, as we have the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest rate decisions, respectively. Obviously, there are some things going on in Europe that could continue to force the ECB to slow down, not the least of which would be the fact that Germany has entered a recession. With that being the case, I do think that overall the US dollar will start to flex its muscles again, especially if we were to see some type of negativity from an economic standpoint. With this, I do remain bearish but I also recognize that we could see more sideways action in the short-term than anything else.
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