EUR/USD Price Forecast – EURO Declines On Dovish Outlook

Upbeat US macro data and delay in Sino-U.S. trade deal lead to a sharp decline in EURO.
Colin First

The EURUSD pair is currently consolidating its hold near previous session lows. Risk appetite remains relatively high in the broad market and was one of the main reasons EURO bulls were able to limit declines well above 1.14 handle which has acted as stable support across the week. US Dollar regained strength in the broad market on upbeat new home sales data. Dollar bulls received from strength on news that trade deal has been delayed yet-again despite both parties expressing optimism on progress and key issues being addressed as expected. U.S. President Donald Trump commented that he is likely to meet Chinese Premier Xi Jinping along with North Korean Premier Kim Jong Un towards the end of February 2019 and is very hopeful of trade deal during his meeting’ However he also mentioned imposing of tariff’s if a deal is not made within deadline of March 1, 2019.

US NFP Update Eyes For Directional Cues

This has caused strong unrest in the market as the month ahead is also set to see trade talks between EU and US officials over trade relations. U.S. is expected to use the threat of tariffs to gain concessions from EU and in case the attempt doesn’t work, U.S. government is expected to impose tariffs on EU Auto market which is providing a significant level of dovish outlook for the common currency in the broad market. Given that short to medium term outlook has turned dovish and European markets lack fundamental support to sustain EURO’s positive near recent highs, the pair is expected to see further declines in the month ahead. As of writing this article, EURUSD pair was trading flat at 1.1439 down by 0.04% on the day.

The pair is expected to continue consolidative action ahead of EU area preliminary CPI data and German manufacturing PMI data hitting the market. However, worse than expected outcome in European macro data is likely to serve as a trigger for further decline. Post-EU CPI update, investors focus will shift to US Non-Farm Payroll data and Unemployment data. A better than expected to reading will result in US Dollar bulls regaining upper hand dragging the pair back near critical support levels of 1.1300 handle while worse than expected outcome will likely result in EURO gaining a breather and establish intermediate support levels for further consolidative action during the first week of February 2019. In immediate future, expected support and resistance for the pair are at 1.1430, 1.1400, 1.1389 and 1.1450, 1.1471, 1.1501 respectively.

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