EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Trying to Rally

The Euro has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, reaching above the 1.18 handle, showing signs of strength again but at the end of the day we still have a lot of resistance just above. The 50 day EMA sits underneath where we bounce from, but when you look at the totality of the market, we are essentially trading in a 500 point range with 100 points on both sides offering a bit of a buffer.

EUR/USD Video 16.11.20

The 1.19 level begins significant resistance to the 1.20 level, something that I do not think it is broken anytime soon. After all, the European Union is locking itself back down and that of course is not going to be good for the economy. At the same time, the United States is starting to see coronavirus numbers pick up, and there is the possibility that the Americans locked down as well. While that should be dollar negative, it will probably force a lot of money into the US Treasury market, which of course demands US dollars. However, I think it would be difficult to break down below the 1.15 handle underneath in that environment. The 200 day EMA is racing towards the 1.15 level, so that offers a bit of a “floor” as well.

In that area, I see the 1.15 level extending to the 1.16 level as a support zone. The fact that the 50 day EMA is right in the middle of the overall consolidation tells you everything you need to know about this market, that it is not going anywhere in the short term as it tries to figure out a direction.

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