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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD

The Euro initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Monday to reach down towards the 50 day EMA, which is essentially going flat at the moment. Because of this, it looks as if the market is going to test the 1.22 level to the upside, an area that recently has been resistance. I suppose you could take a look at the recent action as a little bit of an inverted head and shoulders, which would measure for a move to the upside. That being said, we have not broken out above the 1.22 handle, and it should be noted that the fundamental analysis for this pair is messy to say the least.

EUR/USD Video 23.02.21

The 1.23 level above is the beginning of massive resistance that extends to the 1.25 handle. This is an area that has massive amount of resistance above, and therefore I think it is going to take something rather special to break out above there. After all, the European Union is struggling with rolling lockdowns, and the vaccination program that seems to be stagnant. On the other hand, the United States is likely to get heavily into stimulus again, so you have forces pushing this market in both directions at this point. I think we are simply going to go back and forth in a 300 point range between roughly 1.20 and roughly 1.23, at least until we get some type of macroeconomic reason to get moving in one direction or the other. At this point, I believe that range bound systems will continue to work quite well in this pair.

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