EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to be Choppy

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has rallied slightly during the early hours here on Friday, as we continue to consolidate in a sideways type of market. I think at this point we are in a bit of a holding pattern, as the US government shutdown has kept the non-farm payroll announcement away. But really, when I look at this chart, what really has captured my attention is that the recent FOMC interest rate decision and the press conference were the peak.

We have dropped since then. If we break down below the 50-day EMA and the uptrend line, then I think we have a situation where we dropped to the 1.16 level. Anything below there, I think we’re starting to get into the realm of a potential trend change. To increase the bullish pressure and perhaps send the market higher, we would need to clear the 1.18 level, looking at the 1.19 level, and then finally 1.20.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has rallied a bit during the early hours here against the Japanese yen, but it does look like it’s struggling a bit. I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we do bounce, but getting above the 200-day EMA seems to be a bit of a chore in the short term. Longer term, we’re closer to the bottom of a range than we are at the top. So, I think it does make a certain amount of sense that eventually we will try to reach the top again near the 149 yen level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied ever so slightly during the session here on Friday, but we find ourselves just hanging around the 0.66 level. Now, while we are in an uptrend, it’s been more of a grind than anything else. What I’m watching for is whether or not we start falling from here because if we break down below the Friday candlestick of last week, that actually makes a lower high and a lower low, the beginning of a downtrend.

To the upside, if we can break above the 0.6650 level, we may challenge 0.67, but the Australian dollar has very little in the way of momentum and has been in this attitude since the middle of April. So, with that being the case, I’m not overly impressed, but this is a market that I think continues to be very choppy more than anything else.

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