EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Fight Back

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has initially tried to rally a bit against the U.S. dollar, but it has given those gains back up. By doing so, this looks a lot like a market that is continuing to struggle to find momentum. I find that interesting because it was just a couple of days ago that we saw this impulsive candlestick back to the upside. But previously we had formed a double top, and I questioned whether or not the trend was coming to an end. It was particularly interesting that it happened after the trade deal between the European Union and the United States.

Perhaps a vote of no confidence for the European Union after basically acquiescing to the Americans. We’ll have to wait and see, but this entire move to the upside was based on the tariffs for the most part and the fact that maybe the United States may be shut out. The reality has crept back in and now we have questions to ask. If we can break down below the 1.14 level, the bottom falls out and we go much lower. The 1.18 level above is your resistance.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has pulled back a little bit against the Japanese yen, only to shoot straight up in the air again. We find ourselves at the all too familiar 148 yen level, an area that’s been important multiple times, and an area that also sees the 200 day EMA hanging around. In other words, this is an area that I think makes a lot of sense that we end up at. And the question now is, can we break above there finally? If and when we do, then I think we could make a move towards the 151 yen level. On a breakdown, the 50 day EMA being broken to the downside opens up the possibility of a drop to the 145 yen level.

USD/USD Technical Analysis

In the Australian dollar, we see the same pattern playing out, we try to rally, but just can’t quite get there. The 0.6550 level continues to be a major magnet for price, but now it’s starting to act as resistance. We had previously been on a somewhat well-defined channel. Now we find ourselves not being able to get back into it. The Asian currencies on the whole, all look a bit suspicious to me. And of course, Australia is right there in the mix as it is one of the most important ones in the region for growth and commodities. So, this to me looks like a market that’s trying to roll back over, but we’ll have to wait and see. 0.6550 is your decision line.

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