EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Look for Guidance

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro is basically just sitting and hanging around the 50 day EMA during the hours in the beginning of the Friday session. This is also the 1.16 level. So, it’s an area that you’ll have to be watching closely because it has been important more than once. Ultimately, I do think this is a market that has to make a bigger decision about what it wants to do.

But I think ultimately this is a market that will move on whatever it is Jerome Powell conveys to the trading community and the idea of whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the future. If we do bounce from here, the 1.1750 level and the 1.18 level both will offer resistance. If we break down, pay attention to 1.15, followed by 1.14 for support.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar continues to take off against the Japanese yen. And if Jerome Powell sounds even remotely hawkish during the session on Friday, then that could send the US dollar screaming towards the 150.50 yen level. On a pullback, I would anticipate that the 50 day EMA offers support, followed by the 146 yen level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar tried to rally during the session, but it looks like it’s going to give those gains up pretty quickly, as there just isn’t enough momentum to get the Aussie moving. Ultimately, I think you’ve got a situation here where you have to assume that market participants are looking at this through the prism of a market that just hasn’t performed well to begin with.

And therefore, it makes a lot of sense that the Australian dollar eventually gives up strength. Keep in mind that New Zealand just cut interest rates and that probably has people thinking the Australian dollar will suffer the same fate and that makes it a little weaker than other currencies in general.

Over the last year, we’ve seen the US dollar get hit pretty hard and with that, I think you have to believe that if the Australian dollar really couldn’t take advantage of it. If we start to see the US dollar strengthen, then the Aussie is really going to take it on the chin. As things stand right now, I like fading rallies, and I believe the 0.6550 level will continue to be resistant.

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