EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – Euro Bounces Late in the Week

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 07.08.23

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The euro has fallen significantly during the trading week, but the 1.09 level has offered a certain amount of support, and therefore I think the market is going to continue to try to go higher over the longer term. The question at this point is whether or not we can break above the 200-Week EMA, but if we do it opens up the possibility of a move to the 1.1250 level. Anything above there then really gets the pair moving.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the week that is technically a negative sign, but I don’t know that it’s catastrophic. It’s really not until we break down below the 1.08 level that you can be truly concerned about the euro at this point, and it does look like traders are still trying to press the issue as to whether or not the Federal Reserve can continue to raise rates.

I would expect to see a lot of volatility and choppiness in this area, but quite frankly there’s no reason to think that anything has changed from a longer-term point of view. With this, I think you continue to see buyers on dips, and the longer-term trader is probably just going to continue to hang on to this position, waiting to see whether or not we can get a move to much higher levels.

Keep your position size reasonable, but keep in mind also that this is August, which is typically a miserable time of year as far as momentum is concerned. That’s not to say that we can’t go somewhere quickly, just that typically we don’t.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.