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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD weekly chart, July 22, 2019

The Euro fell significantly during the week but remains in the same 100 PIP range that we have been in for a couple of weeks now. Ultimately, we are testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, but that area has been pierced previously. We are in a range beyond that marked by the two black lines, so at this point it’s very difficult to discern exactly what we should do. Quite frankly, this is a market that is dealing with a couple of central banks that are looking to ease monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is going to be cutting interest rates, while the ECB is looking at other means of liquidity.

EUR USD Forecast Video 22.07.19

With that in mind, we have a couple of “lightweights” when it comes to the Forex world, so therefore it makes a lot of sense that there is no clear direction. Overall, I believe that the pair is trying to form some type of bottom, as the market has been so oversold for so long. If you look at the last year or so, it’s been very choppy to say the least on the way down. We are starting to round off the bottom a bit, but quite frankly there’s nothing compelling on this chart. That being said, I believe that the Federal Reserve will eventually get what it wants, meaning a softer US dollar. If we can break above the shooting star from a month ago, then we may have a real shot at breaking out to the upside. In the meantime, I think this is essentially “dead money.”

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