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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD

The Euro continues to go back and forth during the course of the week, showing a lot of confusion, and uncertainty. The market continues to try to decide which way it wants to go from a longer-term standpoint, but it should not be ignored that we are most decidedly in a long term downtrend. With that being the case, I prefer fading rallies, but would also stand up and take notice if we were to break down below the 1.0750 level. A breakdown below that level could send this market much lower, perhaps down to the 1.0650 level, and then down to the 1.05 level.

EUR/USD Video 18.05.20

At this point, the market is likely to see more volatility, which makes sense considering all things going on in the world. However, I do not like buying the Euro, at least not until we can break above the 1.10 level, something that would take quite a bit of momentum at this juncture. The 50 week EMA sits just above there, it is a clear and that would be something worth paying attention to, but we are still most certainly negative. If the market somehow breaks down below the 1.05 level, that would be a major low being broken on historical charts going all the way to back during the Deutschmark age. With that, the Euro could be in serious trouble. Quite frankly, that is highly likely to happen over the next several years but probably not quite now.

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