EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro Has a Tough Week

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 29.05.23

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The euro has fallen rather significantly during the course of the week as we continue to see a correction in the EUR/USD pair. We are now testing the 50-Week EMA, which of course will attract a certain amount of attention. Furthermore, there’s an uptrend line that we are sending on as well, and that of course is also another reason to think that buyers may come in and try to pick up this market. However, if we were to turn around and break down below this uptrend line, it does open up a move down to the 1.05 level underneath which is an area where we have seen a lot of support.

Any rally at this point in time could lift this market toward the 200-Week EMA which is closer to the 1.11 level, but I think you would need to see the US dollar selloff in general to make that happen. There are a lot of questions about the Federal Reserve and what is going to be doing in the near term, and whether or not it’s going to continue raising rates. Fed Fund Futures have started to price in the possibility of 2 more rate hikes, although it is still at a relatively low 12% chance of happening. With this, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility, and we will of course try to determine whether or not this trendline does hold.

Ultimately, you need to let the market tell you what it’s going to do first before putting a lot of money to work. That being said, if we do break down below the 50-Week MA, then it’s likely that the downward pressure will continue to build, and it’s probably worth knowing that we pull back from the 200-Week EMA, which is quite often very important for trend determining.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.