Christopher Lewis
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The Euro initially fell during the bulk of the week, but after a while found plenty of buyers as the indications of inflation had people thinking that the Federal Reserve is going to have to tighten its monetary policy much sooner. Nonetheless, people began to reevaluate the situation as the Federal Reserve has been plain it is language that it is going to stay loose for longer. That of course works against the value of the US dollar and it does make sense that we would see the Euro take advantage of it. After all, the Euro is considered to be the “anti-dollar”, so it should be the first to move against the greenback.

EUR/USD Video 17.05.21

When you look at the overall trajectory, this is a market that has been bullish for some time, and even recently had a nice correction. Now that the correction seems to be out of the way, I do believe that we will continue to see upward pressure. Having said that, the 1.22 level is resistance, and most certainly the 1.23 level is. If we can break above the 1.23 handle, then this market will more than likely go looking towards the 1.25 level, something that a lot of analysts are predicting by the end of the year.

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To the downside, if we break down below the 1.20 handle then it is possible that we go looking towards the 1.18 level, but that is not my base case scenario after this week. Anticipate bullish yet choppy behavior, but that has typically been the way this market has moved over the last couple of months, with the exception of the recent pullback to the 50 week EMA.

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