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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD weekly chart, January 28, 2019

The Euro pulled back a bit during the trading week, reaching down towards the 1.13 level during the Thursday press conference, as the ECB was a bit more dovish than people in the market had anticipated. However, the Federal Reserve looks likely to be softer going forward, so that does give us a bit of a boost in this market. Beyond that, the 1.12 level features the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which of course is very important from a technical standpoint. It is possible that we are trying to change the trend again, and this is quite often a very sloppy event. After all, this pair had fallen from very high levels over the last couple of years, and with the recent change in tone from the Federal Reserve, it would make sense that we have to reprice the value of the Dollar, which by extension will reprice the value of the Euro.

EUR USD Forecast Video 28.01.19

That being said, if you are a longer-term trader you can probably scale into a position very slightly, as the market will more than likely be very noisy, but over the longer-term it does look like we are trying to change the trend. As long as we can stay above the 1.12 handle, I think that the most likely move is still to the upside, but we could be talking about months before we really take off. This looks like a very choppy market for the next several weeks.

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