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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis December 21, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP  is totally flat trading at 0.8140, which is a bit surprising after UK retail sales plummeted both month over

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis December 21, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP  is totally flat trading at 0.8140, which is a bit surprising after UK retail sales plummeted both month over month and year over year printed below expectations. There was no data in the eurozone today and news flow was light ahead of the holidays. Trading volume is beginning to decline as traders are leaving the markets ahead of the year end. The next coming days are expected to be very quiet with light volume.

Traders said sterling was also lifted in thin trade by year-end demand for the currency from companies looking to hedge and from central banks.

UK annual consumer price inflation unexpectedly remained at 2.7 percent in November after a surprise jump the month before, which is likely to reinforce the central bank’s concerns about price pressures proving persistent. The market consensus had been for inflation to dip to 2.6 percent. Some analysts said the pound could lose some ground if the minutes from the bank’s latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting show a more dovish bias.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 20

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

 

 

-1.8% 

   

 

 

HKD

 

 

Hong Kong CPI (YoY) 

3.70%

 

3.90% 

 

3.80% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.7% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.9%

 

1.5% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.1% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

361K

 

357K 

 

344K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

3.1%

 

2.8% 

 

2.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3225K

 

3199K 

 

3213K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

 

 

4.87M 

 

4.79M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

 

 

-3.0 

 

-10.7 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 21

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

5.9

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-14.0B

-20.8B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

1.0%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-0.2%

1.8%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.2%

0.5%

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.3%

-0.2%

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.7

74.5

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

Dec 26 01:30 Japan 

Dec 27 10:10 Italy  

Dec 28 10:10 Italy 

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