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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 12, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 11, 2015, 12:33 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP continued to decline giving up 22 points to trade at 0.7072 after UK jobs data helped the pound to rally and the

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 12, 2015 – Forecast

eurgbp wednesday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP continued to decline giving up 22 points to trade at 0.7072 after UK jobs data helped the pound to rally and the euro eased back after early morning gains. BoE Governor Mark Carney signaled on Thursday that he was in no hurry to raise interest rates, and flagged risks to UK growth from external developments.

A number of banks said that, after that message from Carney, they expected unemployment and wage numbers this week to be soft. Others point to broader risks from a complicated picture of high external deficits, booming house prices and poor underlying growth with which the bank has struggled over the past few years.

Britain’s relationship with the European Union is working but the Bank of England will do whatever is needed to adapt should Britons vote to leave the bloc in a referendum, BoE Governor Mark Carney said on Wednesday.

“Our job is to make whatever the British people decide work,” he told Sky News. “And there’s a status quo, we’re making that work and we think it is working, but if things change we will do what’s necessary.”

Britain is due to vote before the end of 2017 on whether to stay in the EU, and Carney attracted criticism last month from anti-EU campaigners after he delivered an upbeat assessment of membership of the bloc.

On Wednesday he said neither he nor the BoE had an institutional view on whether Britain should stay in the EU.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

6.300M

0.500M

2.800M

 

 

  AUD

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

3.9%

 

4.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct)

10.2%

10.2%

10.3%

 

 

  CNY

 

Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)

5.6%

5.8%

5.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep)

3.0%

3.2%

3.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (Oct)

3.3K

1.5K

0.5K

   

  GBP

 

Unemployment Rate (Sep)

5.3%

5.4%

5.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

   

 

EURGBP

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Business NZ PMI (Oct)

 

 

55.4

 

 

  GBP

 

RICS House Price Balance (Oct)

 

45%

44%

 

 

  AUD

 

Unemployment Rate (Oct)

 

6.2%

6.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.0%

0.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.1%

-0.5%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

270K

276K

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Bullard Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)

 

5.370M

5.370M

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

0.752M

2.847M

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Federal Budget Balance (Oct)

 

-130.0B

91.0B

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 11 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 11 12:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 12 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 11:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 10:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 10:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Nov 19 10:50 France Auctions BTANs

Nov 19 11:50 France Auctions OATi

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

 

 

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