Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7128 as both currencies dropped together against a strong US dollar. The pound was weakened by a
The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7128 as both currencies dropped together against a strong US dollar. The pound was weakened by a dovish Bank of England decision while the euro was hurt by falling German Industrial production. The pound saw a drop in industrial production but a surge in manufacturing production.
Sterling hit a one-month low against the dollar and also fell against the euro on Friday, as investors cut bets that favoured the pound after the Bank of England (BoE) chief Mark Carney suggested he was in no hurry to raise interest rates.
Sterling had risen to a 10-week high on a trade-weighted basket of currencies this week on expectations that the first UK rate rise since the financial crisis would come in the third quarter of 2016.
But after a dovish set of minutes from the BoE last policy meeting and an Inflation Report that said inflation would stay subdued, investors have pushed back those expectations to the last quarter of 2016.
Analysts said the dovish signals from the BoE, which flagged risks to UK growth from external developments, showed it was growing increasingly edgy about the currency’s recent strength.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
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Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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GBP |
BoE Gov Carney Speaks |
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AUD |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
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JPY |
BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks |
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EUR |
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.1% |
0.5% |
-0.6% |
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GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
0.9% |
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GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
0.8% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
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GBP |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
-9.35B |
-10.60B |
-10.79B |
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GBP |
Trade Balance Non-EU (Sep) |
-2.08B |
-3.30B |
-3.84B |
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USD |
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks |
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USD |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct) |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
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USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) |
271K |
180K |
137K |
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USD |
Participation Rate (Oct) |
62.4% |
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62.4% |
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USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) |
268K |
165K |
149K |
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USD |
Unemployment Rate (Oct) |
5.0% |
5.1% |
5.1% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Monday, November 9, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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EUR |
German Trade Balance (Sep) |
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20.0B |
19.6B |
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EUR |
Eurogroup Meetings |
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Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov
Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov
Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction
Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction
Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL
Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction
Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction
Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl
Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction
Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction