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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 9, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 6, 2015, 14:19 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7128 as both currencies dropped together against a strong US dollar. The pound was weakened by a

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 9, 2015 – Forecast

eurgbp friday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7128 as both currencies dropped together against a strong US dollar. The pound was weakened by a dovish Bank of England decision while the euro was hurt by falling German Industrial production. The pound saw a drop in industrial production but a surge in manufacturing production.

Sterling hit a one-month low against the dollar and also fell against the euro on Friday, as investors cut bets that favoured the pound after the Bank of England (BoE) chief Mark Carney suggested he was in no hurry to raise interest rates.

Sterling had risen to a 10-week high on a trade-weighted basket of currencies this week on expectations that the first UK rate rise since the financial crisis would come in the third quarter of 2016.

But after a dovish set of minutes from the BoE last policy meeting and an Inflation Report that said inflation would stay subdued, investors have pushed back those expectations to the last quarter of 2016.

Analysts said the dovish signals from the BoE, which flagged risks to UK growth from external developments, showed it was growing increasingly edgy about the currency’s recent strength.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production (MoM)

-1.1%

0.5%

-0.6%

   

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.9%

   

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM)

0.8%

0.4%

0.4%

   

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

-9.35B

-10.60B

-10.79B

   

  GBP

 

Trade Balance Non-EU (Sep)

-2.08B

-3.30B

-3.84B

   

  USD

 

FOMC Member Bullard Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct)

 0.4%

0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

 271K

180K

137K

 

 

  USD

 

Participation Rate (Oct)

 62.4%

 

62.4%

 

 

  USD

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

 268K

165K

149K

 

 

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate (Oct)

 5.0%

5.1%

5.1%

   

 

eurgbp

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 9, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance (Sep)

 

20.0B

19.6B

 

 

  EUR

 

Eurogroup Meetings  

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction

 

 

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