Advertisement
Advertisement
EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 2 – 6, 2013 Forecast
By:
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP closed the month at 0.8528 down from Monday’s opening at 0.8592 as the euro eased as traders moved to risk
The EUR/GBP closed the month at 0.8528 down from Monday’s opening at 0.8592 as the euro eased as traders moved to risk off mode over the week as the conflict in Syria escalated. In light of the upward revision to second-quarter real GDP in the U.K., combined with further evidence of the positive impact of the government’s housing loan program on consumer spending the pound continues to gain against the euro. Late Thursday, the U.K. parliament, however rejected a preliminary vote to become involved in military strikes in Syria, easing fears of an imminent attack.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Aug 30, 2013 |
0.8528 |
0.8537 |
0.8553 |
0.8520 |
-0.11% |
|
Aug 29, 2013 |
0.8537 |
0.8589 |
0.8590 |
0.8530 |
-0.59% |
|
Aug 28, 2013 |
0.8588 |
0.8614 |
0.8651 |
0.8572 |
-0.30% |
|
Aug 27, 2013 |
0.8614 |
0.8585 |
0.8624 |
0.8581 |
0.34% |
|
Aug 26, 2013 |
0.8585 |
0.8592 |
0.8597 |
0.8577 |
-0.08% |
Upbeat data from the euro zone weren’t enough to lift the indexes. The Economic Sentiment Indicator rose sharply by 2.7 points in August to 95.2, beating expectations of a 93.7 reading, according to a poll by FactSet. The number of people unemployed in the euro zone fell in July for the second month in a row, adding to tentative signs that a modest recovery under way in the currency bloc’s economy is starting to erode its sky-high levels of joblessness.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of August 26-30 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug. 26 |
13:30 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-0.6% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-7.3% |
-4.0% |
3.9% |
|
Aug. 27 |
09:00 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
107.5 |
107.0 |
106.2 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
German Current Assessment |
112.0 |
110.9 |
110.1 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
German Business Expectations |
103.3 |
103.0 |
102.4 |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
81.5 |
79.0 |
81.0 |
|
Aug. 28 |
07:00 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
6.9 |
7.1 |
7.0 |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
CBI Distributive Trades Survey |
27 |
19 |
17 |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
-1.3% |
-0.5% |
-0.4% |
|
Aug. 29 |
08:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
7K |
-5K |
-7K |
|
|
10:10 |
EUR |
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
4.46% |
4.46% |
|
|
|
13:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
|
13:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.5% |
1.7% |
1.9% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
331K |
332K |
337K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
2.5% |
2.2% |
1.7% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
2989K |
2980K |
3003K |
|
Aug. 30 |
07:00 |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
1.3% |
1.4% |
1.6% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.1% |
1.2% |
1.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
|
14:45 |
USD |
Chicago PMI |
53.0 |
53.0 |
52.3 |
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
82.1 |
80.5 |
80.0 |
Historical: From 2011 to Present
Highest: 0.9084 EUR on Jul 01, 2011
Average: 0.8351 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 02 |
02:45 |
CNY |
50.1 |
||
|
|
08:43 |
EUR |
51.0 |
50.4 |
|
|
|
08:48 |
EUR |
49.7 |
49.7 |
|
|
|
08:53 |
EUR |
52.0 |
52.0 |
|
|
|
08:58 |
EUR |
51.3 |
51.3 |
|
|
|
09:28 |
GBP |
54.8 |
54.6 |
|
|
Sep. 03 |
09:30 |
GBP |
56.5 |
57.0 |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
54.5 |
55.4 |
|
|
Sep. 04 |
09:28 |
GBP |
59.0 |
60.2 |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
0.4% |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-38.2B |
-34.2B |
|
|
Sep. 05 |
11:00 |
EUR |
-1.0% |
3.8% |
|
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
375B |
375B |
|
|
|
12:45 |
EUR |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
187K |
200K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.3% |
0.9% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
55.2 |
56.0 |
|
|
Sep. 06 |
09:30 |
GBP |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.2% |
1.9% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-8.08B |
||
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-1.7% |
1.2% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-1.0% |
2.0% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
-0.5% |
2.4% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
175K |
162K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
34.4 |
34.4 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
177K |
161K |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 03 09:10 Norway
Sep 03 09:15 Austria
Sep 03 09:30 Belgium
Sep 03 09:30 UK
Sep 04 09:10 Sweden
Sep 04 09:30 Germany
Sep 05 08:30 Spain
Sep 05 08:50 France
Sep 05 15:00 US
Sep 06 15:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
Advertisement