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Bob Mason

Economic Calendar:

Friday, 30th October

French GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 1st Estimate

German GDP (Q3) 1st Estimate

German Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Sep)

French CPI / HICP (Oct) Prelim

Italian CPI (MoM) Prelim

Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 1st Estimate

Italian CPI (MoM) (Oct) Prelim

Eurozone Inflation / GDP / Unemployment Rate


The Majors

It was a mixed day for the European majors on Thursday. The DAX30 rose by 0.32% to end a run of 3 consecutive days in the red. It was another bearish day for the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600, however, which saw red for a 4th consecutive day.

The losses were modest, however, with the CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 falling by  0.03% and by 0.12% respectively.

Positive economic data from Germany provided the DAX30 with support on the day. The ECB hold on policy and market jitters over the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to weigh, however.

The Stats

It was a busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar.

Key stats included German unemployment figures for October and prelim October inflation figures for Germany and Spain.

In October, unemployment slid by 35k, following a 10k decline in September. Economists had forecasts an 8k fall. As a result, the unemployment rate fell from 6.3% to 6.2%. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to hold steady at 6.3%.

Inflation figures had a muted impact, however, with the ECB in action later in the session.

On the monetary policy front, the ECB left policy unchanged, which was in line with expectations. The ECB press conference did influence, however, as the markets looked for some impact analysis on the latest lockdown measures.

The hold on monetary policy came in spite of the new lockdown measures across the Eurozone. ECB President Lagarde did talk of further monetary policy support next month, however.

From the U.S

It was a busier day on the economic calendar. Key stats included 3rd quarter GDP numbers and the weekly jobless claims.

In the 3rd quarter, the U.S economy surged by 33.1%, reversing a 31.4% contraction from the 2nd quarter. Economists had forecast a 31.0% rebound.

While the stats were of influence, the impact was softened by negative sentiment towards the economic recovery and Presidential Election jitters.

Employment figures were also positive, with initial jobless claims easing from 791k to 751k in the week ending 23rd October. Economists had forecast claims of 775k.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Thursday. BMW and Volkswagen both saw gains of 1.65% to lead the way. Continental and Daimler saw more modest gains of 0.36% and 0.82% respectively.

It was another mixed day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 0.55%, while Commerzbank fell by 1.74%

From the CAC, it was yet another bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas slid by 1.50%, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen falling by 0.89% and by 0.28% respectively.

It was a mixed day for the French auto sector, however. Peugeot fell by 0.91%, while Renault rose by 0.86.

Air France-KLM fell by 2.93% off the back of Wednesday’s 5.75% slide, with Airbus SE ending the day with a 0.44% loss.

On the VIX Index

A run of 3 consecutive days in the green came to an end on Thursday. Partially reversing a 20.78% surge from Wednesday, the VIX fell by 6.68% to end the day at 37.59.

On Thursday, the Dow and S&P500 rose by 0.52% and 1.19% respectively, with the NASDAQ gaining 1.64%.

Positive economic data from the U.S and talk of a sizeable post-election fiscal package supported the majors on the day.

The Day Ahead

It’s another busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats include French, German, Spanish, and Eurozone GDP figures for the 3rd quarter.

Consumer spending figures from France and Germany and prelim October inflation figures are also due out.

Eurozone unemployment figures are also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the majors, however.

From the U.S, personal spending, inflation figures, and Chicago PMI numbers will also be in focus later in the day.

Away from the economic calendar, U.S politics and COVID-19 will remain the key drivers on the day, however.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow was down by 237 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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