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Bob Mason

Economic Calendar:

Monday, 14th September

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)

Tuesday, 15th September

French CPI (MoM) (Aug) Final

French HICP (MoM) (Aug) Final

Italian CPI (MoM) (Aug) Final

German ZEW Current Conditions (Sep)

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep)

Eurozone Wages (YoY) (Q2)

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep)

Wednesday, 16th September

Eurozone Trade Balance (Jul)

Thursday, 17th September

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) Final

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Aug) Final

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Aug)

Friday, 18th September

German PPI (MoM) (Aug)


The Majors

It was a mixed day for the European majors on Friday, following Thursday’s choppy session that left the majors in the red.

The DAX30 slipped by 0.05%, while the CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 saw gains of 0.20% and 0.13% respectively.

Major stats from the Eurozone failed to provide direction on the day. Brexit woes and the ECB’s upward revision to 2020 growth forecasts from the day prior continued to pin the majors back.

Adding pressure on the majors on the day was a pickup in the EUR, though not enough to sink the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats included finalized inflation figures from Spain and Germany.

With the markets having responded to prelim figures and concerns over deflationary pressure, the stats had a muted impact.

Finalized figures were in line with prelim figures for August.

In Germany, consumer prices fell by 0.1%, following a 0.5% slide in July, with the harmonized consumer price index falling by 0.2%. In July, the HICP had fallen by 0.5%.

From Spain, consumer prices fell by 0.5% year-on-year, following a 0.6% decline in July. The harmonized consumer price index fell by 0.6%, following a 0.7% decline in July.

From the U.S

Economic data was on the lighter side once more. August inflation figures were in focus.

In August, core consumer prices rose by 0.4%, following a 0.6% increase in July. Economists had forecast a 0.2% rise. The rise in core consumer prices supported a pickup in core inflationary pressures. In August, the annual rate of core inflation picked up from 1.6% to 1.7%.

The annual rate of inflation also picked up in August, rising from 1.0% to 1.3%. Consumer prices rose by 0.4% in the month, following a 0.6% increase in July. Economists had forecast a 0.3% rise.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was another mixed day for the auto sector on Friday. Continental and Volkswagen fell by 1.23% and by 0.08%, while BMW and Daimler rose by 2.20% and by 0.46% respectively.

It was a bearish day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank fell by 1.05%, with Commerzbank sliding by 2.32%.

From the CAC, it wasn’t much better for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole saw losses of 2.42% and 1.87% respectively. Soc Gen led the way down, however, sliding by 3.11%.

It was yet another mixed day for the French auto sector. Peugeot ended the day up by 0.69%, while Renault slid by 1.77%.

Air France-KLM ended the day down by 1.13%, with Airbus SE falling by 0.89%.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the red for the VIX on Friday. for the VIX on Thursday. Reversing a 3.12% rise from Thursday, the VIX fell by 9.56% to end the day at 26.87.

It was a mixed day for the U.S majors on Friday, as concerns over the sustainability of the economic recovery weighed. Tech stocks struggled once more, leaving the NASDAQ in the red while pinning back the Dow and S&P500.

The NASDAQ fell by 0.60% following Thursday’s 1.99% slide, while the Dow and S&P500 rose by 0.48% and by 0.05% respectively.

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats include July industrial production figures for the Eurozone.

The markets will be looking for some positive numbers to support the ECB’s upward revision to growth forecasts.

With no stats from the U.S to consider on the day, geopolitics will likely be a key driver.

The markets will need to continue monitoring Brexit chatter and any further updates on TikTok’s fate. Trump’s 20th September deadline is now just around the corner and the U.S President has stated that no extension would be offered.

On the positive for the markets going into the week, however, is news from the weekend that Oxford University has resumed its COVID-19 vaccine trials.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow was up by 187 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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