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Cac 40 indice in downtrend mode indicates global economy enter recession

Economic Calendar:

Wednesday, 12th May 2021

German CPI (MoM) (Apr) Final

French CPI (MoM) (Apr) Final

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French HICP (MoM) (Apr) Final

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)

Friday, 14th May 2021

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Apr) Final

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Apr) Final


The Majors

It was a bearish day for the European majors on Tuesday.

The EuroStoxx600 slid by 1.97%, with the CAC40 and the DAX30 ending the day down by 1.86% and by 1.82% respectively.

A tech sell-off from the U.S on Monday sent the European majors into the deep red on Tuesday. With stats on the lighter side, there was little to distract the markets from the fear of the FED needing to address a pickup in inflationary pressures.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy Eurozone economic calendar. Industrial production figures from Italy and economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone were in focus.

Italian Industrial Production

According to istat, industrial production fell by 0.1% in March, reversing a 0.1% increase in February. Economists had forecast a 0.4% rise. Production rose by 0.9%, quarter-on-quarter, in the 1st quarter of this year.

Year-on-year production was up 37.7% in March. In February, production had been down by 0.8%. Economists had forecast a 37.2% jump.

Economic Sentiment

In May, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator jumped from 70.7 to 84.4, with the Current Conditions Indicator rising from -48.8 to -40.1.

Economists had forecast the German Economic Sentiment Indicator to rise to 72.0 and for the Germany’s Current Conditions Indicator to rise from -48.8 to -41.3.

For the Eurozone, the Economic Sentiment Indicator jumped from 66.3 to 84.0. Economists had forecast a rise to 65.0.

From the U.S

JOLT’s job openings were in focus late in the session. Following disappointing NFP numbers for April, the numbers drew more attention than usual.

In March, job openings rose from a revised 7.526m to 8.123m, coming in ahead of a forecasted 7.500m.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Tuesday. BMW led the way down, falling by 1.40%, with Daimler and Volkswagen falling by 1.19% and by 0.81%. Continental bucked the trend, rising by 0.14%, however.

It was also a mixed day for the banks. Deutsche Bank fell by 0.98%, while Commerzbank rallied by 2.76%.

From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. Credit Agricole and Soc Gen fell by 1.27% and by 1.50% respectively, with BNP Paribas ending the day down by 0.04%.

It was a particularly bearish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV fell by 2.90%, with Renault sliding by 6.44%.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE ended the day with losses of 2.59% and 2.50% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was a second consecutive day in the green for the VIX on Tuesday.

Following on from a 17.80% jump on Monday, the VIX rose by 11.09% to end the day at 21.84.

The Dow fell by 1.36%, with the NASDAQ and the S&P500 ending the day down by 0.09% and by 0.87% respectively.

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the European economic data front. Finalized April inflation figures for France and Germany are due out along with industrial production figures for the Eurozone.

Barring any upward revisions to the prelim numbers, industrial production figures for the Eurozone will have the greatest impact.

From the U.S, inflation figures for April will draw plenty of attention later in the day. Following market jitters over inflation earlier in the week, a marked pickup in inflationary pressures will test support for the majors.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini down up by 28 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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