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Economic Calendar:

Wednesday, 19th May

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) Final

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Apr) Final

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Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Apr) Final

Friday, 21st May

French Manufacturing PMI (May) Prelim

French Services PMI (May) Prelim

German Manufacturing PMI (May) Prelim

German Services PMI (May) Prelim

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (May) Prelim

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (May) Prelim

Eurozone Services PMI (May) Prelim

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The Majors

It was a mixed day for the European majors on Tuesday, with the EuroStoxx600 managing to recover Monday’s modest loss.

The CAC40 and the DAX30 fell by 0.07% and by 0.21% respectively, while the EuroStoxx600 ended the day up by 0.28%.

Unwavering market optimism delivered yet more support for the majors. Reopening plans were the story of the day, providing the EuroStoxx600 a boost, while economic data from the Eurozone pegged the majors back.

Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, due out after today’s European close, inflation concerns were also a drag on riskier assets.

From the U.S, stats were limited to housing sector data that had a muted impact on the European majors late in the day.

The Stats

After a quiet start to the week, the Eurozone’s economy was back in focus this morning.

Economic data included 2nd estimate GDP numbers and March trade data for the Eurozone.

First Quarter Growth

In the 1st quarter, the Eurozone economy contracted by 0.6%, quarter-on-quarter. Year-on-year, the economy contracted by 1.8%. Both were in line with 1st estimates.

Please see here for the Eurostat report.

Trade

In March, the Eurozone’s trade surplus narrowed from €17.7bn to €15.8bn. Economists had forecast a widening to €26.5bn.

According to Eurostat,

  • Exports to the rest of the world increased by 8.9% to €212.1bn in March 2021, when compared with March 2020.
  • Imports from the rest of the world jumped by 19.2% to €196.3bn, however, when compared with March 2020.
  • In March 2020, the trade surplus had stood at €29.9bn.
  • Intra-euro area trade surged by 27.5% to €199.0bn in March 2021, when compared with March 2020.
  • In January to March 2021, euro area exports to the rest of the world fell by 0.6% to €564.0bn, however, when compared with the same period in 2020.
  • Imports increased by 0.3% to €514.4bn, leading to a trade surplus of €49.5bn compared with a surplus of €54.6bn in January-March 2020.
  • Intra-euro area trade increased by 6.2% to €514.2bn in January to March 2021, when compared with January to March 2020.

From the U.S

It was a quiet day on the economic calendar on Tuesday. Housing sector data for April were in focus that had a muted impact on the majors late in the European session.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Tuesday. Continental rose by 0.94%, with Daimler and Volkswagen seeing gains of 0.28% and 0.56% respectively. BMW slipped by 0.02%, however.

It was also a mixed day for the banks. Deutsche Bank fell by 0.37%, while Commerzbank ended the day up by 0.62%.

From the CAC, it was a mixed day for the banks. BNP Paribas rose by 0.16%, while Credit Agricole and Soc Gen saw losses of 0.78% and 0.13% respectively.

It was also a mixed day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV fell by 0.21%, while Renault gained 0.16% on the day.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE avoided more red, with gains of 2.34% and 0.25% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the green for the VIX on Tuesday.

Following on from a 4.84% gain from Monday, the VIX rose by 7.91% to end the day at 21.31.

The NASDAQ slipped by 0.56%, with the Dow and the S&P500 ending the day down by 0.78% and by 0.85% respectively.

The Day Ahead

It’s a quieter day ahead on the European economic data front. Finalized April inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out later today.

Barring any marked upward revisions from prelim figures, however, the numbers should have a muted impact on the majors.

From the U.S, there are no material stats to distract the markets, with the focus likely to be on the FOMC meeting minutes due out after the European close.

Market jitters over a marked pickup in inflationary pressure linger and the markets will be looking for further assurance of status quo from the minutes. For the European majors, a degree of uncertainty over the minutes could be a drag.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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