It's a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. While stats from Germany and the U.S will influence, the latest spike in new COVID-19 cases remains a concern.
Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar)
It was another mixed day for the European majors on Thursday. The DAX30 and the CAC40 rose by 0.08% and by 0.09% respectively, while the EuroStoxx600 slipped by 0.14%.
Positive economic data from Germany and the U.S failed to kick start a rally on Thursday.
COVID-19 continued to peg the majors back in spite of Germany’s U-turn on an Easter lockdown.
A fresh spike in new COVID-19 cases across Germany had seen the DAX30 deep in the red before finding support.
The latest rise in new COVID-19 cases coincided with the release of the ECB’s Economic Bulletin. The Bulletin highlighted the ECB’s concerns over the impact of a 3rd wave on the economic recovery.
It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar on Thursday. On the economic data front, German consumer confidence figures were in focus early in the day.
For April, the GfK Consumer Climate Index increased from a revised -12.7 to -6.2. Economists had forecast an increase to -11.9.
According to the GFK survey,
Looking at the individual components of the survey,
Later in the session, the ECB Economic Bulletin also drew interest.
Salient points from the ECB Economic Bulletin included:
It was also a relatively busy day. Key stats included the weekly jobless claims and finalized GDP numbers for Q42020.
In the week ending 19th March, initial jobless claims fell from an upwardly revised 781k to 684k. Economists had forecast a fall to 730k. It was the first time that initial jobless claims had fallen below 700k since the jump to 3,283k in the week ending March 20th, 2020.
Of less influence were the GDP numbers, following the FED’s bullish outlook on the economic recovery.
In the 4th quarter, the U.S economy grew by 4.3%, revised up from a previous estimate 4.1%. In the 3rd quarter, the economy had expanded by 33.4%.
For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Thursday. Volkswagen rallied by 3.81%, with BMW and Daimler rising by 2.09% and 1.70% respectively. Continental saw a more modest 0.81% gain on the day.
It was a bearish day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank fell by 0.44% and by 2.46% respectively.
From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole fell by 0.57% and by 0.17% respectively, with Soc Gen declining by 1.20%.
It was a mixed day for the French auto sector, however. Stellantis NV rose by 2.55%, while Renault ended the day with a loss of 0.80%.
Air France-KLM declined by 1.44%, while Airbus SE rose by 0.54% on the day.
It was back into the red for the VIX on Thursday, marking an 11th fall from 15 sessions.
Reversing a 4.43% rise from Wednesday, the VIX fell by 6.56% to end the day at 19.81.
The NASDAQ rose by 0.12%, with the Dow and the S&P500 gaining by 0.62% and 0.52% respectively.
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the European economic calendar. German business sentiment and 4th quarter GDP numbers from Spain are due out later today.
Germany’s business sentiment figures for March will garner plenty of interest.
From the U.S, inflation and personal spending numbers for February will also influence later in the session.
Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news updates will need continued monitoring on the day.
In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 21 points.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.